Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
St. Louis Financial Stress Index vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-37
143
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-50% → -21%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
143 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,707
689
Normalized
1,707
689
Prepared
1,707
145
Aligned
143
143
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
142
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
142 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
84 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,566
A: 1564 / B: 2
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,707 raw → 1,707 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 689 raw → 145 prepared
Sign agreement
1.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0654
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0018
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-oilt_weekly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.