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10-Year Real Interest Rate vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+22%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-09
34
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~5 months before OILT
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on OILT.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-13% → +53%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
34 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
537
693
Normalized
537
693
Prepared
537
34
Aligned
34
34
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
33
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10-Year Real Interest Rate today line up with Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) 5 months from now?"
28 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-80%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
503
A: 503 / B: 0
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 537 raw → 537 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 693 raw → 34 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1249
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0065
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-oilt_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.