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PCE Price Index vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+54%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
32
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~29% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+23% → +75%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
32 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
693
Normalized
811
693
Prepared
811
34
Aligned
32
32
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
29%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
31
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+69%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+29%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
781
A: 779 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 693 raw → 34 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
20.3550
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0476
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-pcepi_stock-oilt_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.