SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+27%
of values
In sync
54%
of periods
History
421
weeks · through 2026-17
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Chicago Financial Conditions moves ~12 weeks before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch Chicago Financial Conditions for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on values
95% CI
+18% → +36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
421 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,018
2,886
Normalized
2,018
2,886
Prepared
422
2,886
Aligned
421
421
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
7.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
421
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+38%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Chicago Financial Conditions shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with Chicago Financial Conditions 12 weeks ago?"
409 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
131 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,466
A: 1 / B: 2465
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 422 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,886 raw → 2,886 prepared
Sign agreement
1.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0236
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.5071
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-nfci_fred-sofr_5y