SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-8%
of % moves
In sync
40%
of periods
History
281
days · through 2026-04-30
These move opposite each other about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-8%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-20% → +4%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
285
786
Normalized
285
786
Prepared
285
786
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
0.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-8%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
281 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-8%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-8%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-2%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
159 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
509
A: 4 / B: 505
Series A
NAGE
Stock · 285 raw → 285 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0110
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.1500
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_stock-nage_5y
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Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.