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Correlation
of values
-79%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-30
752
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~63% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-79%
Based on values
95% CI
-82% → -76%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
752 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
787
2,514
Normalized
787
2,514
Prepared
787
2,514
Aligned
752
752
Invalid removed
R²(i)
63%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
752
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-79%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
752 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
192 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,797
A: 35 / B: 1762
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 787 raw → 787 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1625.5991
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
11035.4974
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_fred-sp500_daily_5y