SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Morgan Stanley is a massive global financial services firm, with offices in 42 countries and more than 82,000 employees as of year-end 2025. The firm cut its teeth in investment banking and institutional trading, where it maintains a strong presence today, but generates the lion share of its income from wealth and asset management franchises, where it boasted $9.3 trillion in client assets at the end of 2025. After reincorporation as a bank holding company in the wake of the global financial crisis, Morgan Stanley also boasts a top 10 banking franchise by deposits, with more than $400 billion in customer deposits, predominately attributable to cash sweeps from its wealth management and broke
Market cap 300.5B · 83,000 employees
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+40%) is 2.1σ from the long-run average of -78% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before MS
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on MS.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-5%) and fall (-13%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-84%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Morgan Stanley today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks ago?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-78%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-82% → -72%
Likely range
R²
60.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
46.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
132 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
Morgan Stanley
MS
Market cap 300.5B · 83,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-22374.7349
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10172234.8366
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-ms_5y