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Correlation
of values
+63%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
522
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~40% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+63%
Based on values
95% CI
+57% → +68%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
522 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,512
1,828
Normalized
2,512
1,828
Prepared
523
1,828
Aligned
522
522
Invalid removed
R²(i)
40%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
522
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
522 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+23%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,307
A: 1 / B: 1306
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 523 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,828 raw → 1,828 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7165
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_fred-sp500_weekly_5y