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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
2,482
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~51% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,482 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
2,512
13,901
Normalized
2,512
13,901
Prepared
2,512
13,901
Aligned
2,482
2,482
Invalid removed
51%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,482
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,482 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+40%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,449
A: 30 / B: 11419
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,901 raw → 13,901 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7550
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexusnz_fred-sp500_daily_5y