SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-7%
of % moves
In sync
51%
of periods
History
93
days · through 2026-05-01
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate moves ~6 days before MDLN
Watch Secured Overnight Financing Rate for an early read on MDLN.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-7%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-27% → +14%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
93 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
94
2,018
Normalized
94
2,018
Prepared
94
2,018
Aligned
93
93
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
93
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
-30%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Secured Overnight Financing Rate shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does MDLN today line up with Secured Overnight Financing Rate 6 days ago?"
87 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
-30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,926
A: 1 / B: 1925
Series A
MDLN
Stock · 94 raw → 94 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 2,018 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0011
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.7067
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-sofr_stock-mdln_5y