Correlation
of % moves
-5%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
1,242
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Secured Overnight Financing Rate moves ~6 days before MAR
Watch Secured Overnight Financing Rate for an early read on MAR.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
Approximate (legacy record)In sync(i)
48.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-5%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,242 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
2,018
Normalized
1,255
2,018
Prepared
1,255
2,018
Aligned
1,242
1,242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.3%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,242
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
-23%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Secured Overnight Financing Rate shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does Marriott International Inc. (MAR) today line up with Secured Overnight Financing Rate 6 days ago?"
243 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-5%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
-23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
166 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
789
A: 13 / B: 776
Series A
MAR
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 2,018 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3474
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0250
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-sofr_stock-mar_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.