SeriesMag|r|OverlapThrough
Correlation Analysis
M2SL vs CPIAUCSL
These move together about 97% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
What to Watch
M2 Money Supply moves ~6 days before US CPI
Watch M2 Money Supply for an early read on US CPI.
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between M2SL (a measure of the money supply) and CPIAUCSL (the consumer price index) suggests that increases in the money supply are closely associated with rising consumer prices, indicating inflationary pressures. With M2SL leading CPIAUCSL by six periods, this timing is crucial for investors and policymakers, as it signals that changes in the money supply can precede shifts in inflation, allowing for proactive adjustments. However, while the correlation is robust, it’s important to consider other factors that may influence inflation, such as supply chain issues and fiscal policy, which can affect the relationship.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
+0.951
+0.03 stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does M2 Money Supply today line up with US CPI 6 days from now?"
30 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with US CPI shifted 6 days earlier
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.627
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
r
+0.922
Pearson correlation
95% CI
0.86 → 0.96
Likely range
R²
85.6%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
97.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
805
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
805 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
806
949
Normalized
806
949
Prepared
806
949
Aligned
805
805
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
145
A: 1 / B: 144
Series A
M2SL
FRED · 806 raw → 806 prepared
Series B
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 949 raw → 949 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0128
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
67.6471
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-m2sl-vs-fred-cpiaucsl-daily-20260406-as3kzv