SeriesMag|r|OverlapThrough
Correlation Analysis
CPIAUCSL vs UNRATE
These move together about 46% of the time
Weak positive
Weak relationship — not much actionable signal here beyond directional colour.
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
What to Watch
Unemployment Rate moves ~6 days before US CPI
Watch Unemployment Rate for an early read on US CPI.
AI Analysis
The correlation between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate shows a very weak relationship, indicating that changes in inflation do not significantly predict shifts in unemployment over the long term. While there is some alignment in trends, the fact that unemployment tends to lead CPI by about six months suggests that inflationary pressures may respond to labor market conditions rather than vice versa. However, investors should exercise caution, as the minimal correlation and low explanatory power imply that relying on CPI to forecast unemployment trends could be misleading.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+0.389
+0.37 stronger than no-shift baseline
Unemployment Rate shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does US CPI today line up with Unemployment Rate 6 days ago?"
30 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Unemployment Rate shifted 6 days later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.371
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.090
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
r
+0.053
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-0.34 → 0.31
Likely range
R²
0.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
45.7%
Same-direction moves
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
937
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
937 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
949
938
Normalized
949
938
Prepared
949
938
Aligned
937
937
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13
A: 12 / B: 1
Series A
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 949 raw → 949 prepared
Series B
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.6141
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl-vs-fred-unrate-daily-20260406-simf89