SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-53%
of values
In sync
56%
of periods
History
249
weeks · through 2026-18
These move opposite each other about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~28% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~12 weeks before Fed Balance Sheet
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on Fed Balance Sheet.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-53%
Based on values
95% CI
-61% → -43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
249 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,220
1,741
Normalized
1,220
1,741
Prepared
1,220
250
Aligned
249
249
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
28.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
249
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-67%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Fed Balance Sheet today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 12 weeks ago?"
237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-37%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
229 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
972
A: 971 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 250 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
12.2982
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-iorb_fred-walcl_5y