SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+27%
of values
In sync
35%
of periods
History
1,195
days · through 2026-05-01
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on values
95% CI
+22% → +33%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,195 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
2,515
1,741
Normalized
2,515
1,741
Prepared
2,515
1,741
Aligned
1,195
1,195
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,195
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+27%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,195 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
242 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,866
A: 1320 / B: 546
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 2,515 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1149
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-iorb_fred-sp500_5y