SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+34%
of % moves
In sync
51%
of periods
History
1,245
days · through 2026-05-01
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+29% → +39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,245 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
2,018
Normalized
1,255
2,018
Prepared
1,255
2,018
Aligned
1,245
1,245
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
11.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,245
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,245 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
166 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
783
A: 10 / B: 773
Series A
HWM
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 2,018 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0102
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.5791
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-sofr_stock-hwm_5y