SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 43% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Goldman Sachs is a storied financial institution, founded in 1869 and best known for its role as a leading global investment bank. The firm has a sprawling reach across global financial centers and has been the leading provider of global merger and acquisition advisory services, by revenue, for the past 20 years. Since the global financial crisis, Goldman has expanded its offerings into more stable fee-based businesses like asset and wealth management, which comprised roughly 30% of post-provision revenue at the end of 2025. The firm generates revenue from investment banking, global market making and trading, lending, asset management, wealth management, and a small and declining portfolio o
Market cap 276.6B · 47,400 employees
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+2%) is running 1.6σ away from the long-run average of -84%.
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before GS
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on GS.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-11%) and fall (-6%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Goldman Sachs Group Inc. today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks ago?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-84%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-88% → -80%
Likely range
R²
71.2%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
43.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
143 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
GS
Market cap 276.6B · 47,400 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3966.6069
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9645466.6775
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-gs_5y