SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Alphabet is a holding company that wholly owns internet giant Google. The California-based company derives slightly less than 90% of its revenue from Google services, the vast majority of which is advertising sales. Alongside online ads, Google services houses sales stemming from Google's subscription services (YouTube TV and YouTube Music, among others), platforms (sales and in-app purchases on Play Store), and devices (Chromebooks, Pixel smartphones, and smart home products such as Chromecast). Google's cloud computing platform accounts for roughly 10% of Alphabet's revenue. The firm's investments in up-and-coming technologies such as self-driving cars (Waymo), health (Verily), and interne
Market cap 4.2T · 190,820 employees
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (+34%) is running 1.7σ away from the long-run average of -77%.
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~12 weeks before GOOG
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on GOOG.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-16%) and fall (-2%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-83%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Alphabet Inc. Class C Capital Stock today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 12 weeks ago?"
249 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Balance Sheet shifted 12 weeks later
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-77%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-82% → -72%
Likely range
R²
59.4%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
48.1%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-2%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
Alphabet Inc. Class C Capital Stock
GOOG
Market cap 4.2T · 190,820 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-10833.5579
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9508182.0042
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-goog_5y