SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+94%
of values
In sync
60%
of periods
History
240
days · through 2025-10-01
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~89% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
+93% → +96%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
240 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
240
352
Normalized
240
352
Prepared
240
352
Aligned
240
240
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
89.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
240
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
240 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
144 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
95 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
112
A: 0 / B: 112
Series A
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
Potential GDP
GDPPOT
FRED · 352 raw → 352 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
182.7795
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
953.4400
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-gdppot_fred-gfdegdq188s_5y