SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-01
138
These move opposite each other about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~12 weeks before Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
-69% → -47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
138 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,810
317
Normalized
1,810
317
Prepared
1,810
317
Aligned
138
138
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
138
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-83%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 15Y Mortgage Rate today line up with Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator 12 weeks from now?"
126 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-4%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+10%
74 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,851
A: 1672 / B: 179
Series A
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 1,810 prepared
Series B
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
GDPDEF
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-6.2462
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
121.8271
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-gdpdef_fred-mortgage15us_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.