SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+37%
of values
In sync
54%
of periods
History
422
weeks · through 2026-18
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
US Gas Price moves ~12 weeks before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch US Gas Price for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on values
95% CI
+29% → +45%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
422 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,018
1,857
Normalized
2,018
1,857
Prepared
422
1,857
Aligned
422
422
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
13.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
422
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+51%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Gas Price shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with US Gas Price 12 weeks ago?"
410 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
120 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,435
A: 0 / B: 1435
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 422 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,857 raw → 1,857 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1117
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7788
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-sofr_5y