SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-29%
of values
In sync
47%
of periods
History
249
weeks · through 2026-18
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Interest on Reserve Balances moves ~12 weeks before US Gas Price
Watch Interest on Reserve Balances for an early read on US Gas Price.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on values
95% CI
-40% → -17%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
249 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,741
1,857
Normalized
1,741
1,857
Prepared
250
1,857
Aligned
249
249
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
8.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
249
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-53%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Gas Price shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Interest on Reserve Balances today line up with US Gas Price 12 weeks from now?"
237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-27%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
232 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,609
A: 1 / B: 1608
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 250 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,857 raw → 1,857 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0678
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.6925
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-iorb_5y