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Correlation
of values
-55%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
281
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~31% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Personal Savings Rate moves ~8 months before 10Y Real Yield
Watch Personal Savings Rate for an early read on 10Y Real Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-55%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,880
809
Normalized
5,880
809
Prepared
283
809
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
31%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
-64%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Personal Savings Rate shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y Real Yield today line up with Personal Savings Rate 8 months ago?"
273 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
118 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
530
A: 2 / B: 528
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,880 raw → 283 prepared
Series B
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
84.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.8280
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.5993
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dfii10_fred-psavert_monthly_5y