SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-29%
of values
In sync
47%
of periods
History
386
weeks · through 2026-09
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~9 weeks before USD/THB Exchange Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on USD/THB Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -20%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
386 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
386
11,289
Normalized
386
11,289
Prepared
386
2,364
Aligned
386
386
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
8.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
386
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+9 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/THB Exchange Rate shifted 9 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does U-6 Unemployment Rate today line up with USD/THB Exchange Rate 9 weeks from now?"
377 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 weeks
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-31%
141 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,978
A: 0 / B: 1978
Series A
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 386 raw → 386 prepared
Series B
USD/THB Exchange Rate
DEXTHUS
FRED · 11,289 raw → 2,364 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5125
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
39.4226
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dexthus_fred-u6rate_5y