SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-68%
of values
In sync
35%
of periods
History
1,185
days · through 2026-04-24
These move opposite each other about 35% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~46% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-68%
Based on values
95% CI
-71% → -65%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,185 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,741
8,138
Normalized
1,741
8,138
Prepared
1,741
8,138
Aligned
1,185
1,185
Invalid removed
Explore
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
46.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,185
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-68%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,185 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-11%
240 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
7,509
A: 556 / B: 6953
Series A
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,741 raw → 1,741 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,138 raw → 8,138 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4889
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.7093
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-iorb_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.