SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
-22%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-03-01
706
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on values
95% CI
-29% → -15%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
706 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
706
879
Normalized
706
879
Prepared
706
879
Aligned
706
706
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
706
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-22%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
706 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-22%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
130 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
173
A: 0 / B: 173
Series A
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 879 raw → 879 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4657
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
121.6943
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_fred-recprousm156n_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.