SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+6%
of % moves
In sync
38%
of periods
History
227
days · through 2026-04-30
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
HY Bond Spread moves ~6 days before CRCL
Watch HY Bond Spread for an early read on CRCL.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+6%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-8% → +18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
227 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
229
786
Normalized
229
786
Prepared
229
786
Aligned
227
227
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
0.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
227
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+13%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
HY Bond Spread shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does CRCL today line up with HY Bond Spread 6 days ago?"
221 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+6%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
+13%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
149 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
561
A: 2 / B: 559
Series A
CRCL
Stock · 229 raw → 229 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.9153
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_stock-crcl_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.