SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Very strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% f
Market cap 442.8B · 341,000 employees
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+38%) is 2.1σ from the long-run average of -92% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (-4%) vs when both rise (-30%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
261 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Fed Balance Sheet at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-92%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-94% → -90%
Likely range
R²
85.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
50.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,220
Normalized
1,255
1,220
Prepared
261
1,220
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-30%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-4%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
959
A: 0 / B: 959
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 442.8B · 341,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3700.2514
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10313256.2084
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-walcl_stock-cost_5y