SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+76%
of values
In sync
47%
of periods
History
415
months · through 2026-03
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~58% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
15Y Mortgage Rate moves ~18 months before Labor Force Participation
Watch 15Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on Labor Force Participation.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+76%
Based on values
95% CI
+72% → +80%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
415 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
938
1,810
Normalized
938
1,810
Prepared
938
417
Aligned
415
415
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
58.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
415
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+82%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
15Y Mortgage Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with 15Y Mortgage Rate 18 months ago?"
397 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-6%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
147 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
525
A: 523 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 417 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
30
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7078
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-40.5872
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-civpart_fred-mortgage15us_5y