SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-90%
of values
In sync
51%
of periods
History
279
months · through 2026-03
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~80% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-90%
Based on values
95% CI
-92% → -87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
279 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
938
1,220
Normalized
938
1,220
Prepared
938
281
Aligned
279
279
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
80.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
279
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-90%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
279 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-90%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+61%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
156 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
661
A: 659 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 281 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1452756.3255
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
96649115.8082
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 days ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-walcl_5y