SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-32%
of values
In sync
48%
of periods
History
603
weeks · through 2026-09
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Total Vehicle Sales moves ~2 weeks before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch Total Vehicle Sales for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on values
95% CI
-39% → -25%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
603 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,094
603
Normalized
3,094
603
Prepared
3,094
603
Aligned
603
603
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
10.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
603
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-2 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-37%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 2 weeks later. Reads: "Does Continued Jobless Claims today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 2 weeks ago?"
601 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 weeks
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,491
A: 2491 / B: 0
Series A
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,094 raw → 3,094 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 603 raw → 603 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
16.4557
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-totalsa_5y