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Correlation
of values
-50%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
606
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
606 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
606
13,910
Normalized
606
13,910
Prepared
606
667
Aligned
606
606
Invalid removed
25%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
606
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-50%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
606 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
61
A: 0 / B: 61
Series A
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 606 raw → 606 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,910 raw → 667 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
63
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0389
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.3961
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexusal_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y