SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 36% of the time
Very strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
American Express is a global financial institution, operating in about 130 countries, that provides consumers and businesses charge and credit card payment products. The company also operates a highly profitable merchant payment network. It operates in four segments: US consumer services, US commercial services, international card services, and global merchant and network services. In addition to payment products, the company's commercial business offers expense management tools, consulting services, and business loans.
Market cap 217.6B · 76,800 employees
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-63%) is running 1.8σ away from the long-run average of -91%.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (-10%) and fall (+9%) — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
Correlation drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-91%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
752 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-91%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-92% → -90%
Likely range
R²
82.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
35.9%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
752
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
752 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
786
Normalized
1,255
786
Prepared
1,255
786
Aligned
752
752
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
179 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
537
A: 503 / B: 34
Series A
American Express Company
AXP
Market cap 217.6B · 76,800 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0097
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.9130
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 1 hour ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_stock-axp_5y
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
Strongest positive