Correlation Analysis
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock vs Carrier Global Corporation
TSLA vs CARR
+0.305
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
↗TSLA
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of real world artificial intelligence software, which includes autonomous driving and humanoid robots. The company has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans, crossover SUVs, a light truck, and a semi truck. Tesla also plans to begin selling a sports car and offer a robotaxi service. Global deliveries in 2025 were nearly 1.64 million vehicles. The company sells batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities and solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation. Tesla also owns a fast-charging network and an auto insurance business.
Market cap 1.3T
Carrier Global Corporation
↗CARR
Carrier Global, spun out of United Technologies in 2020, manufactures and services commercial and residential HVAC systems and transportation refrigeration solutions under its flagship Carrier brand, as well as Bryant, Payne, Heil, and others across various price points. In 2024, Carrier acquired Viessmann Climate Solutions to expand its footprint in Europe with heat pumps, boilers, and solar PV equipment. Proceeds from the sale of Carrier's fire and security (Honeywell) and commercial refrigeration (Haier) businesses reduced debt and focused the company on global HVAC and refrigeration solutions. Carrier generates 75% of sales from equipment and 25% from parts and services. The company derives 50% of revenue from the US, 30% from Europe, and 20% from the Asia-Pacific region.
Market cap 46.4B · 47,000 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
CARR leads TSLA by 6 days
CARR tends to move before TSLA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.327 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.521
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.124
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.638
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
9.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
59.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.254, 0.354]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA
Market cap 1.3T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Carrier Global Corporation
CARR
Market cap 46.4B · 47,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0409
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
43.6143
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
TSLA
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
Highest
+0.870
Reddit, Inc.
RDDT · 512 data points
Lowest
-0.817
Elevance Health, Inc.
ELV · 947 data points
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
Highest
+0.803
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.125
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-tsla-vs-stock-carr-daily-20260408-hbkrhh