Correlation Analysis
Toast, Inc. vs Walmart Inc. Common Stock
TOST vs WMT
+0.569
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Toast, Inc.
↗TOST
Toast Inc is a cloud-based, all-in-one digital technology platform purpose-built for the restaurant community. The company provides a comprehensive platform of software-as-a-service (SaaS) products and financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a broad ecosystem of third-party partners. It serves as a restaurant operating system, connecting front of house and back of house operations across service models such as dine-in, takeout, and delivery. It operates through one reportable segment consisting of its SaaS products, financial technology solutions, integrated payments, hardware, and partner ecosystem.
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
↗WMT
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $680 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2025 sales), Walmart International (18%), and Sam's Club (14%). Within the US, nearly 60% of its $465 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
Market cap 1T
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
WMT leads TOST by 6 days
WMT tends to move before TOST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.592 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.141
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.155
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.582
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
32.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
56.5%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,139
Deep shared window — 1,139 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.528, 0.607]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,139 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,139
1,254
Normalized
1,139
1,254
Prepared
1,139
1,254
Aligned
1,139
1,139
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
115
A: 0 / B: 115
Series A
Toast, Inc.
TOST
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Stock · 1,139 raw → 1,139 prepared
Series B
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
Market cap 1T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.3774
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
30.8199
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-tost-vs-stock-wmt-daily