Correlation Analysis
Target Corporation vs Exxon Mobil Corporation
TGT vs XOM
-0.789
Strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Target Corporation
↗TGT
Target's start dates back to 1962, but now it is one of the largest discount retailers in the United States (where it derives all of its sales), operating just under 2,000 stores and generating over $106 billion in fiscal 2024 sales. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise across categories including apparel and accessories (16% of fiscal 2024 revenue), beauty and household essentials (30%), food and beverage (23%), hardlines (15%), as well as home furnishings (16%). Target's model is anchored in its physical store base, which fulfills more than 97% of sales. Around 30% of sales are derived from its own private-label brands.
Market cap 55.3B · 415,000 employees
Exxon Mobil Corporation
↗XOM
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2024, reserves were 19.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 680.7B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
XOM leads TGT by 6 days
XOM tends to move before TGT.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.801 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.376
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.229
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.713
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
62.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
57.3%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.809, -0.767]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Target Corporation
TGT
Market cap 55.3B · 415,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 680.7B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3704
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
159.2944
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-tgt-vs-stock-xom-daily