Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Toast, Inc.
MSFT vs TOST
+0.588
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Toast, Inc.
↗TOST
Toast Inc is a cloud-based, all-in-one digital technology platform purpose-built for the restaurant community. The company provides a comprehensive platform of software-as-a-service (SaaS) products and financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a broad ecosystem of third-party partners. It serves as a restaurant operating system, connecting front of house and back of house operations across service models such as dine-in, takeout, and delivery. It operates through one reportable segment consisting of its SaaS products, financial technology solutions, integrated payments, hardware, and partner ecosystem.
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Who Moves First
MSFT leads TOST by 6 days
MSFT tends to move before TOST.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.601 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.018
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.028
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.572
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
34.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
66.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,139
Deep shared window — 1,139 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.548, 0.625]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,139 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,139
Normalized
1,254
1,139
Prepared
1,254
1,139
Aligned
1,139
1,139
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
115
A: 115 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Toast, Inc.
TOST
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Stock · 1,139 raw → 1,139 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0729
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7018
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-tost-daily-20260408-8oq7oz