Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs PepsiCo, Inc.
MSFT vs PEP
-0.470
Moderate inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
PepsiCo, Inc.
↗PEP
PepsiCo is a global leader in snacks and beverages, owning well-known household brands including Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Lay's, Cheetos, and Doritos, among others. The company dominates the global savory snacks market and also ranks as the second-largest beverage provider in the world (behind Coca-Cola) with diversified exposure to carbonated soft drinks, or CSD, as well as water, sports, and energy drink offerings. Convenience foods account for approximately 58% of its total revenue, with beverages making up the rest. Pepsi owns the bulk of its manufacturing and distribution capacity in the US, but uses bottlers overseas for beverages. International markets made up 41% of total sales and 46% of operating profits before corporate expenses in 2025.
Market cap 214.2B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
PEP leads MSFT by 6 days
PEP tends to move before MSFT.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.478 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.340
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.379
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.786
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
22.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
55.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.512, -0.426]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
PepsiCo, Inc.
PEP
Market cap 214.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0809
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
192.3021
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-pep-daily-20260408-wxx8j1