Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
MSFT vs MPC
+0.755
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
↗MPC
Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company that operates 13 refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States with an aggregate crude oil refining capacity of 3.0 million barrels per day. The company is one of the largest producers of renewable diesel in the U.S.; its Dickinson, North Dakota facility has the capacity to produce 184 million gallons per year, and its Martinez, California, joint venture facility (a 50/50 partnership with Neste) reached its full capacity of 730 million gallons per year in late 2024. Marathon also owns the general partner and approximately 64% of MPLX LP, a large-cap master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets.
Market cap 71.1B · 18,500 employees
Who Moves First
MSFT leads MPC by 6 days
MSFT tends to move before MPC.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.758 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.498
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.647
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.729
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
56.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
52.8%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.730, 0.777]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
MPC
Market cap 71.1B · 18,500 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
46
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4095
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-14.7815
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
MSFT
Microsoft Corp
Highest
+0.938
Cadence Design Systems
CDNS · 1,254 observations
Lowest
-0.867
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
BMY · 1,254 observations
MPC
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Highest
+0.898
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,254 observations
Lowest
+0.225
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 observations
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-mpc-daily-20260408-i5nsxi