Correlation Analysis
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION vs Exxon Mobil Corporation
MPC vs XOM
+0.898
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
↗MPC
Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company that operates 13 refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States with an aggregate crude oil refining capacity of 3.0 million barrels per day. The company is one of the largest producers of renewable diesel in the U.S.; its Dickinson, North Dakota facility has the capacity to produce 184 million gallons per year, and its Martinez, California, joint venture facility (a 50/50 partnership with Neste) reached its full capacity of 730 million gallons per year in late 2024. Marathon also owns the general partner and approximately 64% of MPLX LP, a large-cap master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets.
Market cap 71.1B · 18,500 employees
Exxon Mobil Corporation
↗XOM
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2024, reserves were 19.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 680.7B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
MPC and XOM tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.898 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.509
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.136
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.679
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
80.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
74.6%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.886, 0.908]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
MPC
Market cap 71.1B · 18,500 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 680.7B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4382
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
43.6588
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
MPC
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Highest
+0.891
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.225
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-mpc-vs-stock-xom-daily