Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Dollar Tree Inc.
MSFT vs DLTR
-0.530
Moderate inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Dollar Tree Inc.
↗DLTR
Founded in 1986, Dollar Tree operates almost 9,000 small-box discount stores across the United States and Canada, offering roughly 85% of its merchandise under $2. The chain targets value-conscious suburban and urban shoppers with a mix of consumables (49% of sales), variety (45%), and seasonal goods (6%). In fiscal 2024, Dollar Tree generated over $17 billion in sales, through its multi-price strategy, higher-margin discretionary assortments, and private-label products that account for nearly one-third of sales.
Market cap 21.9B · 153,032 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
DLTR leads MSFT by 6 days
DLTR tends to move before MSFT.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.540 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.261
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.000
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.478
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
28.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
56.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.568, -0.489]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Dollar Tree Inc.
DLTR
Market cap 21.9B · 153,032 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1779
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
182.8725
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-dltr-daily-20260408-753kwx