Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs PCE
MSFT vs PCE
+0.858
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
PCE
PCE
Who Moves First
in sync
MSFT and PCE tend to move at the same time.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.858 (13 shifts scanned)
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.011
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+0.035
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
73.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
57.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
58
Thin shared window — 58 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.770, 0.914]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
58 paired observations survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
805
Normalized
1,254
805
Prepared
61
805
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
750
A: 3 / B: 747
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PCE
FRED · 805 raw → 805 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
16.2121
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13147.6251
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-fred-pce-monthly-20260408-nmj7cn