Correlation Analysis
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock vs PCE
TSLA vs PCE
+0.388
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
↗TSLA
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of real world artificial intelligence software, which includes autonomous driving and humanoid robots. The company has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans, crossover SUVs, a light truck, and a semi truck. Tesla also plans to begin selling a sports car and offer a robotaxi service. Global deliveries in 2025 were nearly 1.64 million vehicles. The company sells batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities and solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation. Tesla also owns a fast-charging network and an auto insurance business.
Market cap 1.3T
PCE
PCE
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Who Moves First
in sync
TSLA and PCE tend to move at the same time.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.388 (13 shifts scanned)
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.492
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+0.285
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
15.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
54.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
58
Thin shared window — 58 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.01
95% CI: [0.144, 0.587]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
58 paired observations survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
805
Normalized
1,254
805
Prepared
61
805
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
750
A: 3 / B: 747
Series A
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA
Market cap 1.3T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PCE
FRED · 805 raw → 805 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
7.8918
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
16801.1150
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-tsla-vs-fred-pce-monthly-20260408-ue1zal