Correlation Analysis
Mastercard Incorporated vs XPO, Inc.
MA vs XPO
+0.895
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
XPO, Inc.
↗XPO
Following the spinoff of its contract logistics division (GXO) in 2021 and freight brokerage operations (RXO) in 2022, XPO is moving closer to becoming a pure-play asset-based less-than-truckload carrier. We estimate LTL shipping makes up 60% of total revenue, with XPO's European truckload and LTL operations making up 40%. However, XPO's LTL segment EBITDA mix is much higher than 60%. We believe XPO intends to divest its European trucking division once it finds the right buyer.
Market cap 24B · 37,000 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
MA and XPO tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.895 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.457
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.959
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.644
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
80.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
62.1%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.883, 0.906]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
XPO, Inc.
XPO
Market cap 24B · 37,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
26
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4742
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-121.2284
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-ma-vs-stock-xpo-daily