Correlation Analysis
Mastercard Incorporated vs Target Corporation
MA vs TGT
-0.684
Strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Target Corporation
↗TGT
Target's start dates back to 1962, but now it is one of the largest discount retailers in the United States (where it derives all of its sales), operating just under 2,000 stores and generating over $106 billion in fiscal 2024 sales. The company offers a broad assortment of merchandise across categories including apparel and accessories (16% of fiscal 2024 revenue), beauty and household essentials (30%), food and beverage (23%), hardlines (15%), as well as home furnishings (16%). Target's model is anchored in its physical store base, which fulfills more than 97% of sales. Around 30% of sales are derived from its own private-label brands.
Market cap 55.3B · 415,000 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
TGT leads MA by 6 days
TGT tends to move before MA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.691 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.282
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.149
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.621
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
46.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
60.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.712, -0.653]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Target Corporation
TGT
Market cap 55.3B · 415,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3785
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
319.7474
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-ma-vs-stock-tgt-daily