Correlation Analysis
Eli Lilly & Co. vs Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
LLY vs ULTA
+0.439
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Eli Lilly & Co.
↗LLY
Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, cardiometabolic, cancer, and immunology. Lilly's key products include Verzenio for cancer; Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for cardiometabolic; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.
Market cap 828.2B · 50,000 employees
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
↗ULTA
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the US with more than 1,500 freestanding stores. The firm offers cosmetics (38% of 2025 sales), fragrances (13%), skin care (24%), and hair care products (19%). It also has salon services, including hair, makeup, skin, and brow, that account for 4% of its revenue and drive customer traffic. Outside of the US, Ulta operates premium beauty retailer Space NK (86 stores at year-end 2025 in the UK and Ireland) and has franchised stores in Mexico, and a joint venture in the Middle East. In addition, Ulta collects royalties through its Target partnership (ending in summer 2026) and credit card revenue. Ulta was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
Market cap 23.7B · 65,000 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
LLY and ULTA tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.439 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.432
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.339
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.653
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
19.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
53.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.393, 0.482]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY
Market cap 828.2B · 50,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
ULTA
Market cap 23.7B · 65,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1293
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
363.1085
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co.
Highest
+0.939
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
VRTX · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.889
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
UPS · 1,254 data points
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
Highest
+0.639
Micron Technology, Inc.
MU · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.198
Amazon.Com Inc
AMZN · 1,254 data points
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-lly-vs-stock-ulta-daily