Correlation Analysis
Dollar Tree Inc. vs Walmart Inc. Common Stock
DLTR vs WMT
-0.538
Moderate inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Dollar Tree Inc.
↗DLTR
Founded in 1986, Dollar Tree operates almost 9,000 small-box discount stores across the United States and Canada, offering roughly 85% of its merchandise under $2. The chain targets value-conscious suburban and urban shoppers with a mix of consumables (49% of sales), variety (45%), and seasonal goods (6%). In fiscal 2024, Dollar Tree generated over $17 billion in sales, through its multi-price strategy, higher-margin discretionary assortments, and private-label products that account for nearly one-third of sales.
Market cap 21.9B · 153,032 employees
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
↗WMT
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $680 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2025 sales), Walmart International (18%), and Sam's Club (14%). Within the US, nearly 60% of its $465 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
Market cap 1T
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
DLTR leads WMT by 6 days
DLTR tends to move before WMT.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.544 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.002
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.630
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
29.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
59.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.576, -0.498]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Dollar Tree Inc.
DLTR
Market cap 21.9B · 153,032 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
Market cap 1T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4693
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
122.6264
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-dltr-vs-stock-wmt-daily