Correlation Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp vs Toast, Inc.
COST vs TOST
+0.558
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
Toast, Inc.
↗TOST
Toast Inc is a cloud-based, all-in-one digital technology platform purpose-built for the restaurant community. The company provides a comprehensive platform of software-as-a-service (SaaS) products and financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a broad ecosystem of third-party partners. It serves as a restaurant operating system, connecting front of house and back of house operations across service models such as dine-in, takeout, and delivery. It operates through one reportable segment consisting of its SaaS products, financial technology solutions, integrated payments, hardware, and partner ecosystem.
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
COST leads TOST by 6 days
COST tends to move before TOST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.587 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.156
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.207
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.538
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
31.2%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
60.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,139
Deep shared window — 1,139 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.517, 0.597]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,139 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,139
Normalized
1,254
1,139
Prepared
1,254
1,139
Aligned
1,139
1,139
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
115
A: 115 / B: 0
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Toast, Inc.
TOST
Market cap 15.9B · 6,500 employees
Stock · 1,139 raw → 1,139 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0283
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.3929
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 9 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-tost-daily