Correlation Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp vs Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
COST vs NLY
-0.518
Moderate inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
↗NLY
Annaly Capital Management Inc is an American mortgage real estate investment trust. Its business objective is to generate net income for distribution to its stockholders and optimize its returns through prudent management of its diversified investment strategies. The company's reportable operating segments are: the Agency segment, which invests in Agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by residential mortgages; the Residential Credit segment, which invests in non-Agency residential whole loans and securitized products within the residential and commercial markets; the Mortgage Servicing Rights segment; and Corporate & Other. Maximum revenue for the company is generated from its Agency segment.
Market cap 15.4B · 212 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
NLY leads COST by 6 days
NLY tends to move before COST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.522 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.006
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.316
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.708
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
26.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
57.5%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.558, -0.477]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
NLY
Market cap 15.4B · 212 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0137
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
32.6283
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Highest
+0.977
Republic Services Inc.
RSG · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.912
Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock
FISV · 644 data points
NLY
Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
Highest
+0.155
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.808
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,254 data points
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-nly-daily