Correlation Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp vs MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
COST vs MPC
+0.787
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
↗MPC
Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company that operates 13 refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States with an aggregate crude oil refining capacity of 3.0 million barrels per day. The company is one of the largest producers of renewable diesel in the U.S.; its Dickinson, North Dakota facility has the capacity to produce 184 million gallons per year, and its Martinez, California, joint venture facility (a 50/50 partnership with Neste) reached its full capacity of 730 million gallons per year in late 2024. Marathon also owns the general partner and approximately 64% of MPLX LP, a large-cap master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets.
Market cap 71.1B · 18,500 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
COST and MPC tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.787 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.124
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.632
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
61.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
51.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.765, 0.807]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
MPC
Market cap 71.1B · 18,500 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1684
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
17.0297
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Highest
+0.977
Republic Services Inc.
RSG · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.912
Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock
FISV · 644 data points
MPC
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Highest
+0.898
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.225
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-mpc-daily