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Correlation Analysis

Costco Wholesale Corp vs MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION

COST vs MPC

+0.787

Strong positive

When one moves up, the other tends to follow.

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.

Market cap 451.9B

MPC logo

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION

MPC

Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company that operates 13 refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States with an aggregate crude oil refining capacity of 3.0 million barrels per day. The company is one of the largest producers of renewable diesel in the U.S.; its Dickinson, North Dakota facility has the capacity to produce 184 million gallons per year, and its Martinez, California, joint venture facility (a 50/50 partnership with Neste) reached its full capacity of 730 million gallons per year in late 2024. Marathon also owns the general partner and approximately 64% of MPLX LP, a large-cap master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets.

Market cap 71.1B · 18,500 employees

Apr 9, 2021 — Apr 7, 2026Daily1,254 data pointsStockStockConsumerEnergy

Time Series

Relative Performance

Green: COSTGray: MPC36 of 1,254 points (sampled)

Who Moves First

in sync

COST and MPC tend to move at the same time.

After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.787 (they moved in the same direction).

Do They Crash Together?

Correlation by Market Regime

How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.

Both Rising

+0.124

15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose

Both Falling

N/A

4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell

Diverging

-0.632

16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart

R-Squared

61.9%

Share of variance in one series explained by the other.

Trend Agreement

51.2%

How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.

Overlap Quality

1,254

Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.

Significance

p < 0.001

95% CI: [0.765, 0.807]

Scatter

XY Regression

3064006008001,0001,13437.450100150200250260.8Costco Wholesale CorpMARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATIONData pointsFit (r = 0.787)

Pipeline

Data quality details

Pipeline Summary

1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.

Raw input

1,254

1,254

Normalized

1,254

1,254

Prepared

1,254

1,254

Aligned

1,254

1,254

Invalid removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Duplicates removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Alignment drops

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Series A

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Market cap 451.9B

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Series B

MPC logo

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION

MPC

Market cap 71.1B · 18,500 employees

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Sign agreement

100.0%

How often both values share the same sign.

Zero crossings

7

Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.

Slope

0.1684

Linear regression slope.

Intercept

17.0297

Linear regression intercept.

Related Extremes

Highest and Lowest Correlated

Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-mpc-daily